Bitcoin has been the main attraction in the past week, as it has scaled every stiff hurdle with ease. The rally has helped its market dominance hit levels not seen since December 2017. After a long time, the traders have focused on the positives and have disregarded the negative news. This shows that the sentiment is bullish.
A rally being led by the largest cryptocurrency is a bullish sign. Some believe that the upward move is a result of increased activity by institutional players. While we are surprised by the pace of the rally, we believe that this is not sustainable and a repeat of the previous bull market is unlikely. Bitcoin will soon enter a consolidation or a minor correction that can be used as a buying opportunity.
The recovery in cryptocurrencies has enabled projects to source funds easily. Bitfinex has received hard and soft commitments for its $1 billion initial native exchange token offering. Similarly, blockchain equity loan platform Figure, backed by Morgan Creek has sealed a $1 billion “uncommitted” financing facility via blockchain.
Will bitcoin pull the altcoins higher, or will the altcoin rally indicate that the retail crowd is jumping in and a short-term top is close by? Let us see what the charts of the top five performers of the past seven days project.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin (BTC), with its scintillating run, is back in the limelight. One of the world’s top cryptocurrency exchanges, Binance, was hacked and 7,070 in bitcoin was stolen from its hot wallets. However, the hack did not rattle the markets as it continued its uptrend after a brief pause. When markets do not correct on negative news, it is a bullish sign.
Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz expects the lifetime highs to be scaled within the next 18 months. Financial advisory firm Canaccord Genuity also arrived at a similar conclusion based on their studies: they expect bitcoin to hit $20,000 by 2021. Tim Draper, however, is even more bullish, as he expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by 2023.
However, we suggest traders not to get carried away by these lofty targets. Let’s see what the charts project.
The BTC/USD pair is easily breaking out of the overhead resistances. We were expecting the recovery to pause in the zone of $6,000 to $6,480.54, but the pair easily crossed this zone. It has a minor resistance at $6,850, above which the rally can extend to $7,500 and if that level is also crossed, it can move up to $8,500.
However, the sharp rally has pushed the RSI on the weekly charts into the overbought zone for the first time since early January 2018. This shows that the rally has been persistent and strong.
Any dip will find support at $5,900 and below it at $4,900 levels. The next fall might form a higher base and be the last opportunity to buy before the cryptocurrency enters a sustained long-term uptrend.
ETH/USD
While ether (ETH) volumes on decentralized applications (DApps) hit a new high, the number of new DApps deployed on-chain is at a low, close to 2017 levels, according to crypto analytics firm Diar. Over the next 12 months, the Ethereum Foundation plans to spend $30 million for various projects across the ecosystem. Helped with a donation of $1,000 Ether each by Joseph Lubin, Vitalik Buterin, ConsenSys and the Ethereum Foundation, the Moloch decentralized autonomous organization’s total funds have reached $1 million.
An unidentified official of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said that an Ether-based futures product might receive the approval of the regulator if it meets the requirements. Can these bullish developments propel the cryptocurrency higher?
After defending the breakout level of $167.20 for the past four weeks, the bulls are attempting to resume the uptrend. This is a positive sign. The breakout of the ascending triangle can push the price to $256.08, above which a move to $300 is probable.
The ETH/USD pair might face some resistance at the 50-week SMA, but we expect this level to be scaled.
Our bullish view will be negated if the bears reverse direction from the current levels and sink the pair back into the triangle. Such a move will invalidate the breakout of the bullish pattern, which is a bearish sign.
BCH/USD
More than 50% of transactions in bitcoin cash (BCH) are being generated from a single account. These are small transactions in value but are being done on a regular basis — about three to four transactions per second. Some believe that this is being done to make the network look busier than it is, while others speculate that it is being done for a test. Nevertheless, all eyes will be on the forthcoming upgrade of the network on May 15.
The BTC/USD pair has been trading in a tight range of $255 to $335.62 for the past four weeks. The attempt by the bears to breakdown from this range failed, as the bulls purchased the dip to the 20-week EMA.
Currently, the bulls are attempting to ascend the overhead resistance zone of $335.62 to $363.3. If this zone is scaled, the pair is likely to move up to $600. Though there is a minor resistance at 50-week SMA, we expect it to be crossed. Traders can buy above $370 and keep a stop loss of $260. Please use only 30% of the usual position size for this trade: if the cryptocurrency struggles to breakout of $400, traders can quickly raise the stop loss to reduce the risk.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the price reverses direction from the overhead resistance and plummets below the 20-week EMA.
LTC/USD
A new version Litecoin Core 0.17.1 was released which brings in new features, bug fixes, performance improvements and more. Will the bullishness in bitcoin rub off on litecoin? Let’s find out.
The LTC/USD pair has formed a cup and handle pattern, which will complete on a breakout and close above $91. This will have a minimum target objective of $158.91, but the momentum can carry it to $172.647 levels. The traders can buy on a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $91 and keep a stop loss of $65. The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive zone, which suggests that the bulls are in command.
Still, please keep the position size only 50% of normal: let’s keep our risk under control.
Our bullish assumption will be negated if the price fails to breakout and sustain above $91 and drops below $65. In such a case, a fall to $40 and lower is possible.
XMR/USD
Cybercriminals are finding new ways to exploit the vulnerability CVE-2019-3396 in Confluence, a widely used collaboration and planning software, according to a report by security intelligence firm Trend Micro Inc. Monero (XMR) is the fifth best performer of the past seven days. Can it improve its performance over the next few days? Let us find out.
The XMR/USD pair has been consolidating for the past five weeks, and has a stiff resistance at $81. The 50-week SMA is also located just above this level. Hence, we anticipate this zone to act as a stiff hurdle for the bulls.
But if the bulls breakout of the 50-week SMA, it will signal strength and can gradually move up to $120 and above it to $150. Conversely, if the bears sink the pair below $60, it can retest the lows at $38.5.
Traders can wait for the price to breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $81 to initiate long positions. The initial stop loss can be kept at $60, which can be trailed higher as the cryptocurrency moves northwards.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. Charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.